3 Minute Audio
In 2017 I was anxious to better understand how artificial intelligence was likely to impact the way we work so I bought and read Jerry Kaplan’s (a Stanford Professor) book “Artificial Intelligence: What Everyone needs to know.” The following paragraph in the final chapter jumped out at me when I re-read the second sentence today.
“Perhaps you’ve noticed that Google search does a lot more than simply return web pages—it often collects information, formats it, and delivers it to you directly instead of pointing you somewhere else for an answer, as it did when the company first launched its service. Imagine some amazing future in which Google becomes as fast and accurate as is theoretically possible, quickly producing cogent, precise answers based on knowledge gleaned from the entire record of human history insightfully crafted to meet your unique needs. Over time, it learns to answer increasingly subjective questions, producing results that appear more like informed opinions and sage advice than factual statements. Which colleges should I apply to? What gift should I give my sweetheart for Valentine’s Day? When is humanity likely to go extinct? Combined with rapidly increasing conversational capability, it’s plausible that Google, or something like it, will basically become a trusted advisor to just about everyone. This astonishing service, offering a cornucopia of wisdom and knowledge at your fingertips, may become an indispensable tool for daily living.”
When I picked up the book this morning I noticed I’d highlighted the above paragraph (p. 145) and had written a margin note “sounds great but when?” The answer to that question has turned out to be pretty close to “RIGHT NOW – December 2024 and beyond” to quote Buzz Lightyear.
In the book Kaplan mentioned Ray Kurzweil’s prediction of technological singularity—a time when AI will surpass human intelligence and fundamentally transform human civilization. Kurzweil predicted this would occur in early to mid 2040’s. This idea, at the time of book’s publication (2016) was described as “rapture of the nerds.”
When I read it his book, I thought Kurzweil’s prediction was plausible and that the nerds my well prevail. I had a sense that what was happening with cloud technologies was on an accelerating path and baring some existential threat his prediction could easily play. It turns out that was close to correct. Since the release, and explosive user adoption, of ChatGPT and other AI tools much of what Kaplan surmised seems to be a current reality. I believe we’re in for some gigantic changes that will redefine what humanity is all about but I have no idea whether the net outcome will be good or bad.