Enhancing Decision-Making with Evidence-Based Management

CEO’s who possess what I call Confident Humility are naturally lifetime learners. They welcome the opportunity to challenge and be challenged and for the most part, at least in my experience, are great to work with not only because they are good learners, they are also great teachers. Being a business advisor is a fantastic opportunity to teach, to learn, to have fun, and to feel you’ve made a difference i.e. it’s good for the bank, the mind, and the soul.

On the other hand, one of the most difficult challenges we face as advisors is dealing with a CEO who believes he or she knows everything they need to know to run their business. This is particularly frustrating when you know, from your discovery process, that the business has significant upside potential. At least in my experience, leaders who are confident to the point of arrogance never realize the full potential of themselves or their business.

I usually avoid engagements like this because they rarely end well. These individuals tend to attribute success to their own brilliance and blame any failures on external factors or other people. Typically, they hire you to address a symptom rather than the underlying problem. Even if you’re successful in resolving the symptom, the root problem persists, and the symptom often returns, usually worse than before. It’s a lose-lose situation.

However, because I believe in the idea that there’s some good in everyone, I would attempt to save a wayward CEO by drafting a memo that offers an invitation to explore the idea of Evidence-Based Management as a pre-cursor to an advisory engagement. [Full disclosure: I have never done this but got the idea after reading Pfeffer’s & Sutton’s article called Executive-Based Management published in the Harvard Business Review, January 2006]

Here is the memo I might write:

Subject: Reflecting on Our Decision-Making Process for Improved Performance

Good morning [name of client],

I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to share some thoughts that may help us unlock new potential for [Company Name]. Recently, I’ve been reflecting on some challenges we’ve faced and the opportunities they reveal for improving how we approach critical decisions. These insights are informed by the principles of evidence-based management (EBM), a practice increasingly adopted by leading organizations to strengthen performance and outcomes.

The Role of Mindset in Organizational Success

A key component of EBM involves consistently questioning assumptions and ensuring decisions are anchored in the best available evidence, rather than opinions necessarily influenced by personal biases or unexamined traditions. In our case, it might be worth exploring whether some deeply held views—no matter how well-intentioned—could be limiting our ability to adapt and thrive in a rapidly evolving market.

Research shows that even seasoned leaders can fall prey to what is called “the tyranny of experience”—relying heavily on past successes to guide future decisions. While these instincts often serve us well, they can also inadvertently stifle innovation when conditions change. As leaders, embracing humility and curiosity about what we don’t know is crucial to fostering a culture of continuous learning and progress.

Are We Part of the Problem?

An insightful framework I recently encountered asked leaders to reflect on seven key areas that may unintentionally hinder organizational success:

  1. Clinging to past successes: Are we overly reliant on strategies or tactics that worked in the past but may no longer be relevant? This is particularly important when previous experience has been gained in a totally different context.
  2. Favouring breakthrough ideas over incremental progress: Are we placing too much emphasis on transformative initiatives while undervaluing smaller, evidence-backed improvements?
  3. Ignoring collective brilliance: Are we leveraging the insights of our team or deferring excessively to a few voices particularly of the “highest paid people” in the room, including our own?
  4. Downplaying risks: Are we honestly assessing both the benefits and the potential downsides of our decisions namely potential systemic impacts (also known as unintended consequences) on other elements of our business operating system?
  5. Trusting anecdotes over data: Are we too quick to act on stories or isolated successes rather than robust evidence?
  6. Is our focus on the short term at the expense of the long term:  Are we more concerned with a quick-fix rather than seeking solutions to challenges and opportunities that have a likelihood of long term payoff?
  7. Filtering evidence through biases: Are we open to evidence that challenges our beliefs, or do we unintentionally prioritize information that reinforces them?

I mention these points not as criticisms but as prompts for thoughtful reflection. By addressing these questions, we can ensure our decision-making processes align with the principles of EBM, which emphasize logic, data, and adaptability over assumptions and tradition.

A Path Forward

To put these principles into action, I propose we start with a few practical steps:

  1. First, Treat the organization as a prototype: Experiment with new ideas on a small scale before rolling them out broadly. This allows us to learn from real-world results while minimizing risk.
  2. Then, Demand evidence: Before implementing new initiatives, let’s require clear data or case studies that demonstrate their effectiveness. The test of an idea must always be the answer to the question “What has to be true for this idea to produce, or be consistent with, the desired effect?” And importantly, it is the most contentious issue that must pass this test because without general acceptance of this within the business, it’s culture will destroy the likelihood of success of the initiative.
  3. Next, Encourage a culture of inquiry: Promote open dialogue and invite diverse perspectives that challenge assumptions and surface better solutions. To achieve this we must create a culture that promotes psychological safety where people can feel comfortable challenging the opinions and assumptions of their colleagues at all levels. We need to remember that the purpose of dialogue is to explore ideas with a view to discovering something great from synergy rather than winning a debate about an idea.
  4. Finally, Celebrate learning as valuable intellectual capital: Whether initiatives succeed or fail, focusing on what we learn can help us refine our approaches and build resilience. The reality is, if we learn faster than our competitors we are building a sustainable competitive advantage. This happens to be one of the reasons for Amazon’s success.

Adopting this mindset does not mean dismissing the wisdom and intuition that leadership demands. Instead, it’s about combining these strengths with a commitment to seeking truth and adapting as we learn.

I am confident that, together, we can harness these principles to drive improved results and a stronger, more adaptive organization. I’d be delighted to explore these ideas further and hear your thoughts on how best to move forward.

Warm regards,
[Your Name]
[Your Title]

Notes:

Jeffrey Pfeffer & Robert I. Sutton, Executive-Based Management, Harvard Business Review, January, 2006. [Reprint R0601E]

Roger L. Martin, A New Way to Think: Your Guide to Superior Management Effectiveness, Harvard Business Review Press, 2022

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